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allow us to firm up our views on Q3 CPI. We are most cautious on beef, with a large supply increase anticipated from the US and Brazil. Overseas trade index figures should show the terms of trade reaching new all-time highs. Greater scrutiny (PDF 316kB) A key theme we are pushing is that more onus will need to fall on domestic saving to fund our future investment needs. Shifts in the relative price of labour and capital look set to help, but other tweaks (like some of the measures the new Government are suggesting) may assist as well. It is not just that retail mortgage interest rates are going up; it is the price and quantity of credit to the business and agricultural sectors too.
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Feeling trendy (PDF 452kB) The economy is currently growing about trend pace, after cooling from the strong rates of growth seen over 20There are some challenges to navigate but we dont see the economy rolling over, even though that has been the historical tendency. They encourage firms to increase their prices in order to claw back profits, consistent with our expectation of rising inflation. One of the key risks to up the ante of late is possible fall-out from trade war escalations. Nevertheless, with the household saving rate having deteriorated over recent years (to an unsustainable level in our view weaker house price performance is expected to see households look to rebuild precautionary saving, and this will be a headwind for overall activity growth. This weeks labour market data should show a further fall in the unemployment rate, but few signs of a lift in wage growth yet. Our Monthly Inflation Gauge and Truckometer czarina forex branches in makati indicators will give early hints on Q3 inflation and growth momentum. In light of these challenges, we believe it will be difficult to achieve further increases in construction activity from here, despite strong demand. This decent nominal growth picture will also be a key element in this weeks Budget, helping to drive a pretty rosy fiscal picture. As well as the general backdrop of subdued inflation, we put this down to two specific factors.